Extreme wave analysis methods in the gulf of Cagliari (South Sardinia, Italy)

Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to compare the results of the most commonly used extreme wave analysis methods applied to a 20 year (1994–2013) wave hindcast record at a grid point in the Gulf of Cagliari (South Sardinia, Italy). This analysis is a part of a large activity to support design, maintenance and repair of the jetty of the SARAS oil terminal in the inner part of the gulf. The paper shows some merits and hindrances of these methods. While conventional distributions recommended by Goda (e.g. the Gumbel and Weibull distribution) represent nowadays the most common methods in those engineering applications, accurate results in the paper indicate that the coastal engineering community should consider the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) as one of the most performing credible candidates. Particular attention should be paid to the large uncertainty in the return level of extreme significant wave height when predicting a reference value for structures operating in a severe marine environment.