Abstract
A long-term wave hindcast (1979-2009) based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and WAVEWATCH III has been assessed using 29 months of wave measurements over Rio Grande shelf, South Brazil to evaluate the skills and biases in the wave hindcast for this region. Extreme events were selected by Peaks Over Thresholds (POT) and fitted by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to estimate the extreme significant wave height from the 31 years wave simulation. The significant wave heights from the hinhindcast and measurement show generally good aagreement although the wave heights tended to be underestimated in the hindcast. This underestimation was more pronounced in extreme wave events. The estimated extreme waves, based on a hindcast, with 50 and 100 years return period in the offshore deep water over the Rio Grande shelf, feature large waves heights with 10.54 and 11.18 meters, respectively. The information presented here can be useful for those involved in coastal management and disaster response and also for the navigation and offshore operations.
Highlights
Knowledge of extreme ocean wave has important application in many marine sectors
This section firstly shows the results of the validation of the ocean wave model-WW3 clarifying the model tendency to the study area, and quantifies the model performance in extreme situation only
Presents the results of the extreme value analysis based on Peaks Over Thresholds (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) method
Summary
Knowledge of extreme ocean wave has important application in many marine sectors. Extreme wave conditions can be estimated from a long database measured by in situ buoys or by remote sensing. Satellite altimetry data can measure waves with a high spatial resolution (Young et al 2015), it has limited temporal resolution, being less useful for estimation of extreme wave conditions (Silva et al 2015). Buoys provide continuous measurements required to estimate extreme waves and are a baseline for validating the numerical model (Guo & Sheng 2015). In the South Atlantic Ocean, the absence of uninterrupted long-term wave data measured by oceanographic buoys still is a major obstacle for the characterization of severe events in these regions, as well as for extrapolation of return levels with long return periods (D.F. Aguiar et al, unpublished data).
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