Extreme streamflow and sediment load changes in the Yellow River Basin: Impacts of climate change and human activities

Abstract

In recent decades, the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrological events due to climate change and human activities have caused substantial economic losses and damages to human wellbeing. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations of streamflow extremes (QE) and sediment load extremes (SE) in the Yellow River (YR) during 1956–2019. Furthermore, the effects of main human activities and climate change were identified by establishing quantitative relationships between these factors and changing hydrological extremes. Specifically, the QE and SE have decreased significantly (p < 0.05) since 1956 except the headwater (reach above Tangnaihai). However, the QE increased significantly (p < 0.05) during 2000–2019 due to increased extreme precipitation, while the SE tended to stabilize at most stations. Besides, the contribution of QE to annual streamflow declined distinctly in the upper-middle reaches (Lanzhou-Tongguan reach) but increased significantly in the lower reaches (reach below Huayuankou). Likewise, the contribution of SE to annual sediment load increased remarkably in the middle-lower reaches (Huayuankou-Lijin reach). Furthermore, the timing of QE and SE generally tended to disperse from the flood season to the four seasons. While extreme precipitation fundamentally caused the extreme water and sediment discharge, the magnitude and hazard of QE and SE can be strongly regulated by human activities. Particularly, mainstream dams can artificially regulate QE and SE magnitudes and relationships and reduce their synchronization probability, and intra-basin engineering construction and revegetation measures can substantially reduce their possible peaks in a power function form. In addition, changes in the extreme water–sediment relationships indicated that declining erosive power in the middle reaches and decreasing sediment availability in the lower reaches dominated SE reduction. This study provides a scientific basis for flood risk management and water resources development and utilization in large complex river basins.