Abstract
AbstractThe existing operational storm surge model for the Canadian Pacific coast is barotropic without coupling with tides. Here a baroclinic ocean model, which includes tides, storm surges, intra‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variations, is developed to reproduce coastal sea levels in the northeast Pacific from 1993 to 2020. The model results are validated against observations at tide‐gauge sites, demonstrating overall good skills for tides and non‐tidal sea levels. The Gumbel distribution is applied to derive extreme sea levels from hourly sea level anomalies. The model‐based extreme sea levels agree approximately with the observation‐based ones. For the 100‐year return period, modeled total extreme sea levels range from 2.14 m at Victoria Harbour to 4.43 m at Queen Charlotte City, and modeled non‐tidal extreme sea levels from 1.02 m at Bella Bella to 1.78 m at Queen Charlotte City. On average, the model‐based values underestimate the 100‐year return level by 0.18 m for total extreme sea levels and by 0.23 m for non‐tidal extreme sea levels. Both the model‐ and observation‐based results reveal that the storm surge at periods less than 10 d accounts for 60% of the 100‐year non‐tidal extreme sea level, and the intra‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variations account for 40% of it. The present study improves coastal sea level modeling and model‐based extreme level estimates. Moreover, this study also demonstrates for the first time that the intra‐seasonal to interannual changes contribute substantially to extreme sea levels and that El Niño can enhance this contribution on the Canadian Pacific coast.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.