Extreme sea level rise along the Indian Ocean coastline: observations and 21st century projections

Abstract

Anthropogenic sea-level rise poses challenges to coastal areas globally. The combined influence of rising mean sea level (MSL) and storm surges exacerbate the extreme sea level (ESL). Increasing ESL poses a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 2.6 billion inhabitants in the Indian Ocean region. Yet, knowledge about past occurrences of ESL and its progression is limited. Combining multiple tide-gauge and satellite-derived sea-level data, we show that ESL has become more frequent, longer-lasting and intense along the Indian Ocean coastlines. We detect a 2–3-fold increase in ESL occurrence, with higher risk along the Arabian Sea coastline and the Indian Ocean Islands. Our results reveal that rising MSL is the primary contributor to ESL increase (more than 75%), with additional contribution from intensifying tropical cyclones. A two-fold increase in ESL along the Indian Ocean coastline is detected with an additional 0.5 °C warming of the Indian Ocean relative to pre-industrial levels. Utilizing the likely range (17th–83rd percentile as the spread) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MSL projections with considerable inter-model spread, we show that the Indian Ocean region will be exposed annually to the present-day 100 year ESL event by 2100, irrespective of the greenhouse-gas emission pathways, and by 2050 under the moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario. The study provides a robust regional estimate of ESL and its progression with rising MSL, which is important for climate change adaptation policies.