Abstract
Southeast Asian countries have the possibility to have rainfall and number of extreme rainfall event change due to future climate variation. This paper proposed three extreme rainfall indices as a modification of climate extremes indices from CLIMDEX Project by researchers at the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), the University of New South Wales (UNSW). The proposed indices aim to be used as a parameter for observing extreme rainfall events in tropical monsoon countries. Eleven extreme precipitation indices from CLIMDEX Project and the three proposed extreme precipitation for tropical monsoon countries are systematically analyzed based on data of daily rainfall from meteorological stations in Bangkok and Jakarta. Mann-Kendall test was used to observe the trend of extreme rainfall. In general, the analysis of a total of 14 extreme indices show both Bangkok and Jakarta received more rainfall during rainy season and less rainfall during dry season. Specifically, a significant increasing trend of extreme rainfall indices (R60 and R80) was revealed using the proposed indices.
Highlights
Climate change, a phenomenon that is currenltly studied by many researchers around the world, causes several impacts on hydrological variables in many region in the world, including Southeast Asia region
The analysis was done at monthly basis for eight extreme rainfall indices i.e. Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), number of days with above 10 mm rainfall (R10), number of days with above 20 mm rainfall (R20), number of days with above 40 mm rainfall (R40), number of heavy rainfall days (R60), number of very heavy rainfall days (R80), number of extremely heavy rainfall days (R100), and max 1-day rainfall amount (RX1day) in months with high rainfall (Bangkok: May and June; Jakarta: January and February) and in months with less rainfall (Bangkok: December; Jakarta: September). These analysis aims to observe the trend of extreme rainfall events during the rainy season and the dry season
Apart from the result of analysis of trend of extreme rainfall in Bangkok and Jakarta whether it is significant increasing trend or significant decreasing trend, 11 extreme rainfall indices from CLIMDEX Project were reasonable to be considered for observing extreme rainfall based on daily rainfall data in both cities using Mann-Kendall’s Test
Summary
A phenomenon that is currenltly studied by many researchers around the world, causes several impacts on hydrological variables in many region in the world, including Southeast Asia region. In the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s fourth assessment report [1], the increasing temperature in Southeast Asia region that caused increasing precipitation was disclosed. Climate change is considered as the cause of the increasing number of extreme climate events, such as extreme rainfall and extreme temperature. Further impact of extreme rainfall and extreme temperature is the increasing magnitude and number of occurance of severe flood and severe drought. Manton et al [3] revealed the changing of temperature corresponds to the change of precipitation in Southeast Asia and South Pacific.
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