Abstract
The hourly rainfall stochastic model SHYPRE is based on the simulation of descriptive variables. It generates long series of hourly rainfall and enables an at-site empirical estimation of distribution quantiles over France. The present study focuses on the improvement of the rainfall generator by modelling storm characteristics dependence by the copula approach. An evaluation framework is proposed to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of a given method over a territory with a particular care for the extreme part of the distribution. It is used to illustrate the impact of the copula choice on the estimation of rainfall quantiles. Contrary to Clayton copula, both the Gumbel’s and Frank’s permit to improve significantly the performance of the model in the sub-daily rainfall generation. According to our criteria, the final version of SHYPRE proposes a better estimation of rainfall quantiles than the classical extreme value distributions.
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