Abstract
Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil’s and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.
Highlights
R D S Nóia Junior et al (figures 1(a)–(d), supplementary table S3)
The national non-harvested area has been as large as 12% (figure 1(b)) and average national trend-corrected yields have been ranging from 3.2 t ha−1 down to 2.0 t ha−1 (figure 1(c)), which contribute to variation in national wheat production of between 3.0 and 7.5 million t year−1 from 2001 to 2019 (figures 1(d) and (e))
Given the ability of the multi-regression impact models in estimating planted area, non-harvested area, trend-corrected grain yield, and national production in the last two decades (figures 1(a)–(d)), we extended the analysis with long-term climate change scenarios from the recent CMIP6 ensemble for the period 1850–2100, considering retrospective and prospective components of climate trends
Summary
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Rogério de Souza Nóia Junior1 , Pierre Martre2 , Robert Finger3, Marijn van der Velde4 , Tamara Ben-Ari5, Frank Ewert6,7, Heidi Webber6, Alex C Ruane8 and Senthold Asseng1,∗ Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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