Extreme Longevity in Quebec: Factors and Characteristics

Mélissa Beaudry-Godin,Robert Bourbeau,Bertrand Desjardins

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-49970-9_12

Abstract

AbstractThe recent decrease in adult and late-life mortality led to a very rapid increase in the number of centenarians within low mortality countries. This chapter examines the increase in the number of centenarians in Quebec (Canada) across birth cohorts (1871–1901), and outlines some of the underlying demographic mechanisms involved. We study the demographic situation of centenarians from Quebec (Canada) using all aggregated data available since 1871 (census data, vital statistics, and population estimations). Census data and population estimates are taken from Statistics Canada, while vital statistics come from the Canadian Human Mortality Database (CHMD, 2014 www.bdlc.umontreal.ca) and the Institut de la statistique du Québec.With demographic indicators such as the centenarian ratio, the survival probabilities and the maximal age at death, we try to demonstrate the remarkable progress realised in old age mortality. We also analyze the determinants of the increase in the number of centenarians in Quebec: increase in the size of birth cohorts, increase in the probabilities of surviving from birth to age 80 and from age 80 to 100 for specific cohorts, change in the number of persons aged 100 and over relative to the number of persons reaching exact age 100 and net change due to migration and other factors (errors). This decomposition shows that, among the factors identified, the improvement in late-life mortality (from age 80 to 100) is the main determinant of the increase of the number of centenarians.This study stresses the importance of monitoring the number as well as the quality of life of this emerging population of centenarians. It also helps us gain greater perspective on what should be expected in the coming years among low mortality countries such as Canada.

Highlights

Rising life expectancy at birth, and in particular lower mortality at advanced ages, has led to a marked increase in the number and the proportion of centenarians, and to new records in longevity in low mortality countries
In view of the relative size of their populations, the situation in Japan is quite exceptional, with 5.1 centenarians per 10,000 inhabitants. This country is known for the values associated with its long life expectancy at birth, for the prevalence of centenarians, and especially for the speed of growth of this particular population group – in the space of 20 years from
For the purposes of this study, to ensure greater accuracy and reliability of the indicators we present, we base our calculations on population estimates derived using the extinct generations and survival ratio methods published by the Canadian Human Mortality Database (CHMD)

Summary

Introduction

Rising life expectancy at birth, and in particular lower mortality at advanced ages, has led to a marked increase in the number and the proportion of centenarians, and to new records in longevity in low mortality countries This explosion in the numbers of centenarians has been studied in the United States (Krach and Velkoff 1999), France (Meslé et al 2000; Vallin and Meslé 2001), England and Wales (Thatcher 2001; Dini and Goldring 2008), Belgium (Poulain et al 2001), Denmark (Jeune and Skytthe 2001), Switzerland (Robine and Paccaud 2004), Italy (Poulain et al 2004), Japan (Robine and Saito 2003; Robine et al 2003), Australia (Terblanche and Wilson 2014), as well as in Europe (Robine and Saito 2009) and the industrialised countries (Rau et al 2008; Herm et al 2012). This country is known for the values associated with its long life expectancy at birth, for the prevalence of centenarians, and especially for the speed of growth of this particular population group – in the space of 20 years from

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Conclusion