Extreme Learning Machine Predicts High-Frequency Stream flow and Nitrate-N Concentrations in a Karst Agricultural Watershed

Abstract

Highlights A novel high-frequency dataset of streamflow, nitrate-N concentration, and soil moisture at depths throughout and below the root zone highlighted tight connectivity between soil moisture dynamics and nitrate-N concentrations spanning event to seasonal timescales. A TELM model successfully predicted both flow rate and nitrate exports from these complex systems because the time lag associated with the soil conditions was represented in model training. The inclusion of soil moisture and temperature data below the effective root zone was important to accurately capture the storm event hysteresis dynamics observed in the exported nitrate signals. Abstract. Efforts to reduce nitrogen contributions from karst agroecosystems have had variable success, in part due to an incomplete understanding of nitrogen source, fate, and transport dynamics in karst watersheds. Recent advancements in environmental sensors and data-driven artificial intelligence models may be useful in improving our understanding of system behavior and the linkages between soil hydrologic processes and karst nitrate loading dynamics. We collected 35 months of high-resolution streamflow, nitrate-N concentration, soil moisture and temperature (from 10-100 cm depths), and meteorological data in a karst agricultural watershed in the Inner-Bluegrass region of Central Kentucky. Two-layer extreme learning machine (TELM) models were developed to predict nitrate-N concentrations and flow rates as a function of meteorological and soil parameter inputs. Results suggest tight linkages between soil moisture gradients at different depths and nitrate-N concentrations at the watershed outlet. TELM modeling results supported visual observations from the high-frequency data and suggest that inclusion of both soil moisture and temperature parameters at all soil depths improved predictions of both flow rate and nitrate-N concentration (with optimal NSE values of 0.93 and 0.94, respectively, when all inputs were considered). Hysteresis analysis suggested that inclusion of the deepest soil layer (100 cm) was necessary to predict hysteresis observed during storm events. The findings of the study highlight the importance of variable activation of matrix waters in preferential flows throughout events and seasons and its subsequent impacts on nitrate-N concentrations. Results suggest that management models should incorporate vertical variability in soil hydrology to accurately characterize nitrate source and transport dynamics. Further, the results of hysteresis analysis underscore the importance of inclusion of hysteresis indices, in addition to typical model evaluation statistics, to ensure accurate representation of nutrient flow pathways. Keywords: Extreme learning machine, Karst agroecosystem, Nitrate, Water resources.