Extreme Event Verification for Probabilistic Downscaling

Abstract

AbstractExtreme events are important to many studying regional climate impacts but provide a challenge for many “deterministic” downscaling methodologies. The University of Wisconsin Probabilistic Downscaling (UWPD) dataset applies a “probabilistic” approach to downscaling that may be advantageous in a number of situations, including realistic representation of extreme events. The probabilistic approach to downscaling, however, presents some unique challenges for verification, especially when comparing a full probability density function with a single observed value for each day. Furthermore, because of the wide range of specific climatic information needed in climate impacts assessment, any single verification metric will be useful to only a limited set of practitioners. The intent of this study, then, is (i) to identify verification metrics appropriate for probabilistic downscaling of climate data; (ii) to apply, within the UWPD, those metrics to a suite of extreme event statistics that may be of use in climate impacts assessments; and (iii) in applying these metrics, to demonstrate the utility of a probabilistic approach to downscaling climate data, especially for representing extreme events.