Extreme discharges of the Meuse in the Netherlands: 1993, 1995 and 2100 — Operational forecasting and long term expectations

Abstract

The River Meuse is an important part of the water management system in the Netherlands. The river and river bed are used for many functions. Because of high discharges large areas were flooded in 1993 and 1995. During floods information about actual and expected water levels is very important as a basis for flood management. Water levels in the Meuse are predicted with the model FLOFOM, consisting of a statistical module, rainfall-runoff models and a hydrodynamic model. For the floods of 1993 and 1995 the forecasts were of good quality. The accuracy for the 12-hours forecast was in most cases within 10 cm. However, improvements like extending the lead-time, are possible and necessary. In relation to floods and river management, it is also important to look at the future. Climate might change with possibly more precipitation in the winter period. Some initial simulations with increased precipitation were carried out with the forecasting model FLOFOM for the floods of 1993 and 1995. Results show a strong increase in peak flow.