Abstract
Some aspects of the climate of north-western Nigeria were examined in this study, focusing more on rainfall, its inter- and intra-annual variability and patterns of distribution. Adopting the statistical distributions commonly used to describe climate states such as the mean, the standard deviation and the coefficient of variability, the climate of north-western Nigeria was analyzed for possible shifts in mean conditions and patterns. The study found that climatic conditions in north-western Nigeria have altered substantially as four drought episodes took place within the last three decades of the 20 th Century and, the 1984 drought-year rainfall was 58.8 percent lower than the long-term mean rainfall. The study further showed that the 1968 to 2008 mean rainfall shifted downwards by 8.8 percent from the long-term mean, although it cannot be said if the shift is permanent or temporary since recent rainfall trends tend to suggest a recovery. Possible options for stabilizing the regional climate are suggested.
Highlights
Climatic variation in northern Nigeria is not altogether new because this part of Nigeria contains a significant portion of the Sudan-Sahel ecological zone of West Africa
The persistence of drought in parts of northern Nigeria during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s has been attributed to the prevalence of a stagnated anti-cyclonic circulation of the tropical atmosphere over areas that normally should be exposed to the rising arm of the tropical Hadley Cell circulation by mid-summer (Kalu, 1987; Adefolalu, 1986; Kamara, 1986)
Analysis of the climate of north-western Nigeria for the period 1915-2008 confirms that the rainfall of that region has fluctuated substantially
Summary
The persistence of drought in parts of northern Nigeria during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s has been attributed to the prevalence of a stagnated anti-cyclonic circulation of the tropical atmosphere over areas that normally should be exposed to the rising arm of the tropical Hadley Cell circulation by mid-summer (Kalu, 1987; Adefolalu, 1986; Kamara, 1986). These conditions are themselves related to the tropical component of the global general circulation system. One of the consequences of these circulation patterns is that rainfall patterns in West Africa, including northern Nigeria, show both annual and greater than annual variations and marked tele-connections with distant locations (Nicholson, 1985; 1993)
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