Extreme climatic events and public health in the UK

Abstract

Extreme events such as storms, heatwaves and flooding are increasing in severity worldwide owing to climate change. This study evaluates impacts of future projected climate events that could pose a threat to public health in the UK. An aging population means more people will be susceptible to trips and falls during and following extreme climatic events, such as being blown over during high winds. Data from the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) were used to analyse daily extreme events for the current climate and assess projected changes in these events during the remainder of the 21st century. The hazards studied are heat and cold waves, heat stress related events, extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds and gusts. The use of the latest convection-permitting climate model simulations (2.2 km resolution) from UKCP18 allows better simulation of localised events which could lead to differing levels of impact on public health across the UK. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), extreme heat and precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency (and in some cases duration) throughout the 21st century. Alternately, extreme cold and cold wave events could reduce in frequency, although extreme cold events could still occur and thus monitoring annually would be advised. Little change is projected in extreme wind speeds and gusts. Many of the existing hazards that the UK is already vulnerable to are therefore likely to increase in severity in most cases, which therefore escalates the threat to public health. Although this study focuses on public health in the UK, a similar approach could be used for hazards in other countries.