Extreme climate historical variation based on tree-ring width record in the Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China.

Abstract

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have caused serious impacts on the service functions of terrestrial ecosystems and the production and life of human society in recent years. The warm nights (TN90p) variable of the 26 extreme climate indicators was the main factor controlling the tree radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) in the Tianshan Mountains region based on the responses of tree-ring width in the 5 sample sites. Therefore, TN90p in the growth season from May to September (TN90p5-9) during 1735-2016 was reconstructed on the basis of the time stability of the growth-climate relationships. The interpretation rate of variance of the reconstructed equation was 45.4% (R2adj = 44.4%, F = 45.7). The reconstruction showed four relatively high TN90p5-9 historic intervals (1747-1798, 1856-1872, 1906-1951, and 2002-2016) and four low intervals (1735-1747, 1798-1856, 1872-1900, and 1951-2002). The occurrence frequency of extreme high values was higher than that of extreme low values during the reconstruction period of 1735-2016. The extreme values of reconstruction were consistent with historical droughts and large-scale volcanic eruptions, indicating that the reconstruction series had high accuracy. Multi-window spectral periodic analysis and spatial correlation analysis revealed that TN90p5-9 variation in the study area was affected by large-scale sea-air stress factors. In particular, the TN90p5-9 obtained by using R/S analysis (rescaled range analysis) will continue to show an upward trend in the relative period of time in the future. This trend will lead to a further decrease in the radial growth of trees and even trigger forest death events.