Extreme climate events increase risk of global food insecurity and adaptation needs.

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity and spatial extent of extreme climate events, and thus is a key concern for food production. However, food insecurity is usually analysed under a mean climate change state. Here we combine crop modelling and climate scenarios to estimate the effects of extreme climate events on future food insecurity. Relative to median-level climate change, we find that an additional 20-36% and 11-33% population may face hunger by 2050 under a once-per-100-yr extreme climate event under high and low emission scenarios, respectively. In some affected regions, such as South Asia, the amount of food required to offset such an effect is triple the region's current food reserves. Better-targeted food reserves and other adaptation measures could help fill the consumption gap in the face of extreme climate variability.