Abstract
The dzud, a specific type of climate disaster in Mongolia, is responsible for serious environmental and economic damage. It is characterized by heavy snowfall and severe winter conditions, causing mass livestock deaths that occur through the following spring. These events substantially limit socioeconomic development in Mongolia. In this research, we conducted an analysis of several dzud events (2000, 2001, 2002, and 2010) to understand the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation conditions in the Gobi region of Mongolia. The present paper also establishes how these extreme climatic events affect vegetation cover and local grazing conditions using the seasonal aridity index (aAIZ), time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and livestock data. We also correlated aAIZ, NDVI, and seasonal precipitation in the varied ecosystems of the study area. The results illustrate that under certain dzud conditions, rapid regeneration of vegetation can occur. A thick snow layer acting as a water reservoir combined with high livestock losses can lead to an increase of the maximum August NDVI. The Gobi steppe areas showed the highest degree of vulnerability to climate, with a drastic decline of grassland in humid areas. Another result is that snowy winters can cause a 10 to 20-day early peak in NDVI and a following increase in vegetation growth. During a drought year with dry winter conditions, the vegetation growth phase begins later due to water deficiency, which leads to weaker vegetation growth. Livestock loss and the reduction of grazing pressure play a crucial role in vegetation recovery after extreme climatic events in Mongolia.
Highlights
Featuring a mix of monsoon, and harsh Siberian climates, the south Gobi of Mongolia is a unique desert steppe and nomadic living area, and one that is sensitive to global climate changes
We examined the spatial variability of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for dzud events in 2009/2010
This study examined the spatiotemporal pattern in NDVI and the cycle of the growing season after different dzud events detected from MODIS data
Summary
Featuring a mix of monsoon, and harsh Siberian climates, the south Gobi of Mongolia is a unique desert steppe and nomadic living area, and one that is sensitive to global climate changes. As anomalous climatic or land surface conditions (i.e., snow and ice cover) that lead to reduced accessibility or availability of pastures [1]. It often causes very high livestock mortality during the winter. Dzud causes years with growing-season drought and severe winter weather (i.e., deep snow and extreme cold), which can lead to high livestock mortality. Climate changes and other extreme events, such as overgrazing by goats, have led to the degradation and desertification of 76% of grasslands (8% of the land in Mongolia as of 2015). Drought could serve as a strong predictor of a dzud event [13]
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