Abstract
Load spectrum is essential for fatigue life analysis, strength and durability tests of vehicles and components, but the whole life load cannot be acquired by measurement. To extrapolate a short measured load history to a longer time period, a method was presented in this paper based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in conjunction with the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method. Firstly, we extend the load by MCMC to increase the randomness of load and the number of extreme samples; then fit a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) using POT method to extrapolate the extreme values. Methods of threshold selection in POT were also presented briefly in this paper. Rain flow curves of the original, the MCMC extended and the extended extrapolated signal comparison verified the effectiveness of this method.
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