Extrapolation of Historical Storm Data for Estimating Design-Wave Heights

Abstract

Abstract An improved method is presented for selecting offshore structure design waves by extrapolating historical storm data to obtain extreme value statistics. The method permits flexibility in choice of distribution functions through use of computerized procedures, estimates extrapolated wave-height procedures, estimates extrapolated wave-height uncertainty due to small sample size, and includes criteria for judging whether or not given wave-height values can be represented by one or more of the distributions implemented in the method. The relevance of uncertainty to selection of design-wave heights is discussed and illustrated. Introduction The problem of selecting design-wave heights for offshore platforms has many facets, ranging from the development of oceanographic data to the selection of the prudent level of engineering risk for a particular installation. This paper deals only with part of the problem; it describes an improved method for using the small available amount of wave-height information to estimate the extreme value statistics and associated uncertainties for the large storm waves that have a very low probability of occurrence. probability of occurrence. Hindcast wave-height information for design-wave studies usually covers a period of historical record that is shorter than the return period selected for acceptable engineering risk. Return periods commonly used for selection design waves are 100 years or more, but good meteorological data, on Which the calculated wave heights are based, can rarely be obtained for periods covering more than 50 to 60 years. As a consequence, extrapolations to longer return periods are necessary. Present methods for making the extrapolation employ probablistic models through the use of special probability graph papers on which a family of distribution functions plot as straight lines. The wave heights are plotted vs their "plotting-position" return period, and a straight line fitted to the plotted data is extended beyond the data to estimate extreme wave heights for return periods of interest. The methods are described in periods of interest. The methods are described in numerous technical papers and books; Refs. 1 through 5 are examples.