Extralimital terrestrials: A reassessment of range limits in Alaska's land mammals.

Abstract

Understanding and mitigating the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species distributions requires the ability to track range shifts over time. This is particularly true for species occupying high-latitude regions, which are experiencing more extreme climate change than the rest of the world. In North America, the geographic ranges of many mammals reach their northernmost extent in Alaska, positioning this region at the leading edge of climate-induced distribution change. Over a decade has elapsed since the publication of the last spatial assessments of terrestrial mammals in the state. We compared public occurrence records against commonly referenced range maps to evaluate potential extralimital records and develop repeatable baseline range maps. We compared occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility for 61 terrestrial mammal species native to mainland Alaska against a variety of range estimates (International Union for Conservation of Nature, Alaska Gap Analysis Project, and the published literature). We mapped extralimital records and calculated proportions of occurrences encompassed by range extents, measured mean direction and distance to prior range margins, evaluated predictive accuracy of published species models, and highlighted observations on federal lands in Alaska. Range comparisons identified 6,848 extralimital records for 39 of 61 (63.9%) terrestrial mainland Alaskan species. On average, 95.5% of Alaska Gap Analysis Project occurrence records and ranges were deemed accurate (i.e., > 90.0% correct) for 31 of 37 species, but overestimated extents for 13 species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature range maps encompassed 68.1% of occurrence records and were > 90% accurate for 17 of 39 species. Extralimital records represent either improved sampling and digitization or actual geographic range expansions. Here we provide new data-driven range maps, update standards for the archiving of museum-quality locational records and offer recommendations for mapping range changes for monitoring and conservation.