Extracting the diffusion dynamics of crisis information on online social networks: Model and application

Abstract

Disaster mitigation greatly benefits from the diffusion of crisis information. To learn about the diffusion dynamics of crisis information on online social networks, this paper puts forward a crisis information diffusion model based on population dynamics and further analyses its parameters, such as ordinary users’ average number of followers, the number of potential audience members who might spread the crisis information, the forwarding probability for each audience member and the attenuation speed of the information based on real data from Sina Weibo. In addition, a method for the prediction of crisis information diffusion is proposed and verified on the basis of this model. The results show that this model could describe and predict well the diffusion process of crisis information on online social networks, enabling relevant departments to develop appropriate strategies for crisis information diffusion.