Extinction transition of hantavirus-infected rodents in a hostile environment.

Abstract

The spatial critical shelter sizes above which populations would survive are investigated for the infection of hantavirus among rodent populations surrounded by a deadly environment. We show that the critical shelter sizes for the infected population and the susceptible population are different due to symmetry breaking in the reproduction and the transmission processes. Therefore, there exists a shelter size gap within which the infected population becomes extinct while only the susceptible population survives. With the field data reported in the literature, we estimate that, if one confines the rodent population within a stripe region surrounded by a deadly environment with the shorter dimension between 335.5±27.2m and 547.9±78.3m, the infected population would become extinct. In addition, we introduce two factors that influence the movement of rodents, namely, the spatial asymmetry of the landscape and the sociality of rodents, to study their effects on the shelter size gap. The effects on the critical size due to environmental bias are twofold: it enhances the overall competition among rodents which increases the critical size, but on the other hand it promotes the spread of the hantavirus which reduces the critical size for the infected population. On the contrary, the sociality of rodents gives rise to a more localized population profile which promotes the spread of the hantavirus and reduces the shelter size gap. The results shed light on a possible strategy of eliminating hantavirus while preserving the integrity of food webs in ecosystems.