Abstract
Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.)) risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35) because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns), ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration) and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation) factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.
Highlights
Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco barely survived in Mexico after the last ice age; the gradual increase in temperature forced this species to migrate from south to north and towards higher altitude in the mountains [1], which resulted in a fragmented and discontinuous distribution
The improper use and exploitation of natural resources affects forest species to the extent that some of them are endangered or threatened [5,6]. This is the case of P. menziesii located in the central region of Mexico, where the species grows in 29 small, fragmented populations suffering high anthropogenic pressure due to land-use changes, overgrazing, forest fires, inappropriate cone collecting, pest attack and illegal tree cutting and timber [7,8]
The extinction risk analysis was performed using the methodology known as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a structured approach to complex decision-making defined by Saaty [13] for decision-making in business environments based on the simultaneous analysis of multiple criteria
Summary
Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco barely survived in Mexico after the last ice age; the gradual increase in temperature forced this species to migrate from south to north and towards higher altitude in the mountains [1], which resulted in a fragmented and discontinuous distribution. In Mexico, this conifer is mainly distributed in the northern region, in the central part of the country the species exists in small isolated stands [2]. The improper use and exploitation of natural resources affects forest species to the extent that some of them are endangered or threatened [5,6]. This is the case of P. menziesii located in the central region of Mexico, where the species grows in 29 small, fragmented populations suffering high anthropogenic pressure due to land-use changes, overgrazing, forest fires, inappropriate cone collecting, pest attack and illegal tree cutting and timber [7,8]. Pseudotsuga menziesii is the dominant species: The greater the dominance, the less the risk
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