Extinction rates of non-avian dinosaur species are uncorrelated with the rate of evolution of phylogenetically informative characters.

Abstract

Determining the factors that shape temporal variation in species diversity is an ongoing challenge. One theory is that species exhibiting lower rates of phenotypic evolution should be more likely to go extinct as they are more susceptible to changing environmental conditions. However, little work has been done to assess whether this process shapes comparatively few lineages, or is a common mechanism shaping changes in species diversity. Here, I analyse the correlation between rates of morphological evolution and extinction at the species level using six published morphological matrices of non-avian dinosaurs. I find no correlation between the two rates at different taxonomic scales, suggesting that extinction in these groups is better described by other factors. As there is a strong prior expectation of correlated rates, I suggest that traditional morphological matrices are inappropriate for addressing this question and that the characters governing lineage persistence are independent of those with high phylogenetic signal. This may be comprehensively determined with continued development of phenomic matrices.