External validation of the PE-SARD risk score for predicting early bleeding in acute pulmonary embolism in the RIETE Registry

Abstract

IntroductionThe PE-SARD score (syncope, anemia, renal dysfunction) was developed to predict the risk of major bleeding in the acute phase of pulmonary embolism (PE). MethodsWe analyzed data from 50,686 patients with acute PE included in the RIETE registry to externally validate the PE-SARD score. We calculated the overall reliability of the PE-SARD score, as well as discrimination and calibration for predicting the risk of major bleeding at 30 days. The performance of PE-SARD was compared to the BACS and PE-CH models. ResultsDuring the first 30 days, 640 patients (1.3 %) had a major bleeding event. The incidence of major bleeding within 30 days was 0.6 % in the PE-SARD-defined low-risk group, 1.5 % in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5 % in the high-risk group, for an OR of 2.22 (95 % CI, 2.02–2.43) for the intermediate-risk group (vs low-risk group), and 3.94 for the high-risk group (vs low-risk group). The corresponding sensitivity was 81.1 % (intermediate/high vs low risk), and specificity was 85.9 % (95 % CI, 85.8–86.1) (low/intermediate vs high risk). The applicability of PE-SARD was consistent across clinically relevant patient subgroups and over shorter time periods of follow-up (i.e., 3 and 7 days). The C-index was 0.654 and calibration was excellent. The PE-SARD bleeding score improved the major bleeding risk prediction compared with the BACS and PE-CH scores. ConclusionsThe PE-SARD score identifies PE patients with a higher risk of bleeding, which could assist providers for potentially adjusting PE management, in a framework of shared decision-making with individual patients.