External Validation of Models for Prediction of Side-specific Extracapsular Extension in Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy

Abstract

BackgroundPredicting the risk of side-specific extracapsular extension (ECE) is essential for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy (RP) in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). ObjectiveTo externally validate available models for prediction of ECE. Design, setting, and participantsSixteen models were assessed in a cohort of 737 consecutive PCa patients diagnosed via multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted and systematic biopsies and treated with RP between January 2016 and November 2021 at eight referral centers. Outcome measurements and statistical analysisModel performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results and limitationsOverall, ECE was identified in 308/1474 (21%) prostatic lobes. Prostatic lobes with ECE had higher side-specific clinical stage on digital rectal examination and MRI, number of positive biopsy cores, and International Society of Urological Pathology grade group in comparison to those without ECE (all p < 0.0001). Less optimistic performance was observed in comparison to previous published studies, although the models described by Pak, Patel, Martini, and Soeterik achieved the highest accuracy (AUC ranging from 0.73 to 0.77), adequate calibration for a probability threshold <40%, and the highest net benefit for a probability threshold >8% on DCA. Inclusion of MRI-targeted biopsy data and MRI information in models improved patient selection and clinical usefulness. Using model-derived cutoffs suggested by their authors, approximately 15% of positive surgical margins could have been avoided. Some available models were not included because of missing data, which constitutes a limitation of the study. ConclusionsWe report an external validation of models predicting ECE and identified the four with the best performance. These models should be applied for preoperative planning and patient counseling. Patient summaryWe validated several tools for predicting extension of prostate cancer outside the prostate gland. These tools can improve patient selection for surgery that spares nerves affecting recovery of sexual potency after removal of the prostate. They could potentially reduce the risk of finding cancer cells at the edge of specimens taken for pathology, a finding that suggests that not all of the cancer has been removed.