External validation of first trimester combined screening for pre-eclampsia in Brazil: An observational study.

Abstract

To validate a combined algorithm for early prediction of pre-eclampsia (PE) in the Brazilian population. This is an unplanned secondary analysis of a cohort study. Consecutive singleton pregnancies undergoing first-trimester screening for PE involving examination of maternal characteristics, medical history, and biophysical markers were considered eligible. Women were classified as low-or high-risk using a cutoff of 1/200, but the individual risk was not used to dictate management, as aspirin prophylaxis was given to women based solely on clinical risk factors. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves for PE, preterm PE(PE<37) and early 34(PE<34) were constructed and detection rates(DR) and false-positive rates(FPR) were calculated, adjusting for the effect of aspirin. Propensity score analysis was utilized to account for possible confounding by indication. Screening performance and PE rates. Among 1695 women, 323(19.1%) were classified as high-risk for PE and 1372(80.9%) were considered low-risk. Aspirin use was registered in 62(3.7%) in the high-risk group and 33(1.9%) in the low-risk group. There were 164(9.7%) women who developed PE, including 41(2.4%) with PE<37 and 18(1.1%) PE<34.Subgroups with aspirin had higher incidence of PE, suggest confounding by indication. The algorithm had an AUC of 0.87, DR of 72% for PE<34; an AUC of 0.8, DR of 59% for PE<37, both with FPR of 18%. Accounting for effect of aspirin, we observed an improvement in DR of PE<37 to 67%. Using combined predictive algorithm for preterm PE prediction is feasible in clinical practice in low/middle-income countries. Aspirin use needs to be accounted for when evaluating the performance of screening.