External Validation of 4C ISARIC Mortality Score in Critically ill COVID-19 Patients from Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

Background:ISARIC mortality score is a risk stratification tool that helps predict the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients. However, this tool was developed and validated in a British population, and thus, the external validation of this tool in local populations is important.Objectives:External validation of the ISARIC mortality score in COVID-19 patients from a large Saudi Arabian intensive care unit (ICU).Methods:This is a retrospective study that included all adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU of King Saud Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from March 2020 to June 2021. Patients who were pregnant or had pulmonary tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus were excluded along with patients with missing variables. Data were collected to calculate the ISARIC mortality score and then fitting receiver operator characteristic curve against patients’ outcome.Results:A total of 1493 critically ill COVID-19 patients were included. The mortality was 38%, the area under the curve of the score was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79–0.83, P < 0.001) and the cutoff value correctly classified 72.7% of the cohort. The cutoff value of >9 had sensitivity of 70.5% (95% CI: 66.6–74.3); specificity, 73.97% (95% CI: 71–76.8); positive predictive value, 62.4% (95% CI: 59.5–65.2) and negative predictive value, 80.2% (95% CI: 78.2–82.4).Conclusion:The ISARIC score was found to have excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients in our Saudi Arabian cohort. A cutoff score of >9 was the optimal criterion.