External validation and comparison of clinical scores for predicting late seizures after intracerebral hemorrhage in Chinese patients

Abstract

PurposeClinical scores have been established to predict the probability of late seizures following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) for individual patients, including the CAVE, CAVS and LANE scores. The purpose of this study was to compare these prediction scores in the Chinese population and undertake an independent external validation on them. MethodsAt one tertiary hospital in China, we retrospectively recruited consecutive inpatients who had been diagnosed with ICH. Medical records and tele interviews with a modified standardized questionnaire were used to identify late seizures. All the predictors of the prediction scores were collected from patient charts and databases by a standardized data collection protocol. The external validation of the prediction scores was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, Youden index (YI), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Results69 (5.4%) of 1276 patients experienced late seizures after ICH. There was no significant difference in the CAVE, CAVS, and LANE scores, which had AUCs of 0.75 (95% CI = 0.70–0.81), 0.74 (95% CI = 0.68–0.80), and 0.76 (95% CI = 0.70–0.82), respectively. At the optimal cutoff score, the LANE score had a lower sensitivity but a higher specificity than the CAVE and CAVS scores. Among the three prediction scores, the LANE score had a higher PPV than the others (0.145 vs. 0.088, 0.083), while the NPV was similar among the three prediction scores (0.989, 0.989, and 0.972). ConclusionOur study showed that the CAVE, CAVS and LANE scores had similar AUCs for the occurrence of late seizures, but the LANE score had a relatively high PPV at the optimal cutoff score. Due to low evidence for using prophylactic antiseizure medications (ASM) in patients with ICH and poor availability of specialist stroke care in China, the LANE score with a cutoff score of 3 could be an applicable prediction tool in Chinese patients with ICH.