External Strategies for Post-Conflict Democratization: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Macedonia

Abstract

Can countries emerge from civil wars as democracies? And, if they can, to what extent and by what means can external actors support this transition? A research project on post-war democratization being hosted by the Free University of Berlin (FUB) is investigating these questions. It focuses on postconflict environments and examines how external actors can support or hamper democratization. The researchers relied on a qualitative comparative approach, using evidence from nine case studies. This contribution provides an overview of the findings of all nine cases, with a focus on the three Southeastern European states of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Macedonia. Compared to the other six cases, these stand out by the fact that two of them (Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo) have hosted very large peace missions of long duration, and all three are in the direct neighbourhood of the European Union. We will, throughout the text, use evidence mainly from those three cases and refer to the overall results from the nine cases to put them into context. Analyses of these case studies reveals that external democracy promotion in post-conflict states is rarely effective. Three common strategies pursued by external actors were examined, none of which was found to have an observable impact on democratization per se. The three strategies are: peace missions, democratization aid, and neighbourhood effects. While large-scale peace missions are successful at guaranteeing security, they tend to produce hybrid regimes rather than functioning democracies. Similarly, the massive amounts of democratization aid given by bilateral and multilateral donors contribute to building states’ capacities, but not democracy. The only strategy that does seem to make a difference in terms of democratization – if only in the South-eastern European states – is that of “neighbourhood effects”, specifically in relation to the prospect of EU integration. Our research finds that the most important factor in explaining successful post-conflict democratization is not the level of external assistance but the internal demand for democracy.