External Event Crises on The Stock Market: Taking Japan’s Sea Discharge Incident as An Example

Abstract

On August 22, 2023, the Japanese government announced that it would start discharging nuclear wastewater into the sea from August 24. This decision was widely questioned and opposed by the international community and caused strong concerns in Japan. This article aims to take the Japanese nuclear sewage discharge incident into the sea as an example to explore the impact of social crisis on Japan's domestic stock market. The main research method of this article is based on stock return analysis, using the ARIMA model to predict the Japanese stock price trend after excluding the impact of this event, and then comparing it with real data. The results of this study provide evidence that the predicted stock prices are close to the actual stock prices, indicating that as of mid-September, there was no short-term negative impact on the Japanese stock market due to the event, but from a long-term perspective, the predictions remain It is uncertain whether stock prices in Japan's financial markets will fall because of this incident. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that external events may not have a large impact on stock prices in the short term. Different from previous literature, this study uses ARIMA analysis on daily data and weekly data to obtain the relationship between them. Recommendations include organizing a team of experts; hiring a legal team; establishing a complete procedure to handle social media information, and having a dedicated public relations team may be helpful.