External evaluation of the predictive performance of published population pharmacokinetic models of linezolid in adult patients

Abstract

Several linezolid population pharmacokinetic (popPK) models have been established to facilitate optimal therapy; however, their extrapolated predictive performance to other clinical sites is unknown. This study aimed to externally evaluate the predictive performance of published pharmacokinetic models of linezolid in adult patients. For the evaluation dataset, 150 samples were collected from 70 adult patients (72.9% of which were critically ill) treated with linezolid at our center. Twenty-five published popPK models were identified from PubMed and Embase. Model predictability was evaluated using prediction-based, simulation-based, and Bayesian forecasting-based approaches to assess model predictability. Prediction-based diagnostics found that the prediction error within ±30% (F30) was less than 40% in all models, indicating unsatisfactory predictability. The simulation-based prediction- and variability-corrected visual predictive check and normalized prediction distribution error test indicated large discrepancies between the observations and simulations in most of the models. Bayesian forecasting with one or two prior observations significantly improved the models' predictive performance. The published linezolid popPK models showed insufficient predictive ability. Therefore, their sole use is not recommended, and incorporating therapeutic drug monitoring of linezolid in clinical applications is necessary.