External coercion and public support: The case of the US–China trade war

Abstract

Domestic support is crucial for state leaders facing international challenges. Previous studies suggest that in both democracies and autocracies, citizens tend to support their government in resisting external coercion, and state leaders would pay high political costs for backing down, especially after they have publicly committed to standing firm. But it is also frequently assumed that the public would grow weary of international conflict and turn to peaceful settlement. Empirical research on how and why this presumed shift in public opinion would take place remains relatively scarce. This article tackles this issue by examining the dynamics of Chinese public opinion during the US–China trade war in 2018. With a two-wave survey of Chinese citizens, I explore how the government’s strategy affected public approval through two causal mechanisms: the state’s reputation for resolve and economic impact. I find that respondents’ support for standing firm was strengthened by gains in reputation for resolve but attenuated by anticipated economic losses. I also find that respondents were more sensitive to the anticipated economic losses of a prolonged trade war over time and that respondents’ preferences were constantly conditional on their pre-existing anti-American sentiment. These findings illuminate the nuanced considerations of an authoritarian audience whose calculations extend beyond sheer nationalist beliefs and dynamically respond to changing circumstances.