Extent of Population Ageing and Intergenerational Support in the States of India

Abstract

Age structural transition, the progressive shift from young to old age structure, occurs as populations undergo shift from high mortality and fertility to a situation of low mortality and fertility. During the process of age structural transition, initially there will be a period during which child dependency ratio declines due to decline in fertility as well as increase in the working age population. But later on, as the population continues to have low fertility, the higher proportion of working population move to older age groups making it an older population with higher proportion of elderly. With declining fertility rate, India is also undergoing transitions in its age structure and the proportion of older population is also increasing. Some states like Kerala, Goa, Tamil Nadu, etc., are already experiencing larger proportions of old age population. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the age structure of population in the states of India and find out the extent of population ageing and rank the states according to the level of intergenerational support available in the states. Census data for 2001 and 2011 and projected figures for the period 2011–2026 are used for the analysis. The paper used both static and dynamic indicators for the analysis, viz. Kii’s index, demographic ageing index, index of demographic longevity, intergenerational support index and potential support index. Finally, a categorization of states is made by arranging the states in India according to the selected indicators. The study found that the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and West Bengal are at a greater risk of population ageing with lower intergenerational support.