Extension of the gamma concept to handle changing environment during shelf-life. Applied to an example with Listeria monocytogenes in salads with changing pH.

Abstract

Prediction of microbial growth is the main topic within the area of predictive microbiology. A commonly used framework is the so-called gamma concept which is to view the bacterial growth rate as a product of a bacteria- and medium specific maximum instantaneous factor, and several environmental factors. Traditionally environmental factors are assumed to be constant, leading to exponential growth. In the current study, we expand the gamma concept to include changing dynamic environmental factors, exemplified by pH, and show how this might affect estimates for Listeria monocytogenes growth rates and thereby predicted shelf-life. The study shows how substantial environmental changes might lead to large biases for the estimated growth and shelf-life, if not accounted for in the model. Finally, the study shed some light on how accuracy for the growth rate estimates might be improved by allocating more weight to observations prone to favorable than unfavorable environmental conditions.