Extension of an Ice Shelf Water plume model beneath sea ice with application in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

Abstract

AbstractA one‐dimensional, frazil‐laden plume model predicts the properties of Ice Shelf Water (ISW) as it evolves beneath sea ice beyond the ice shelf edge. An idealized background ocean circulation, which moves parallel to the plume, imitates forcings other than the plume's own buoyancy. The size distribution and concentration of the plume's suspended frazil ice crystals are affected by the background circulation velocity, the root‐mean square tidal velocity, the drag coefficient, and the efficiency of secondary nucleation. Consequently, these variables are the key physical controls on the survival of supercooled water with distance from the ice shelf, which is predicted using several realistic parameter choices. Starting at 65 m thick, the in situ supercooled layer thins to 11 ± 5 and 4 ± 3 m at distances of 50 and 100 km, respectively. We apply the extended model in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, along the expected path of the coldest water. Three late‐winter oceanographic stations along this path, in conjunction with historical data, provide initial conditions and evaluation of the simulations. Near the ice shelf in the western Sound, the water column consisted entirely of ISW, and the subice platelet layer thickness exceeded 5 m with platelet crystals dominating the sea ice structure suggesting that ISW persisted throughout winter. Presuming a constant ISW flux, the model predicts that the plume increases thermodynamic growth of sea ice by approximately 0.1 m yr−1 (∼5% of the average growth rate) even as far as 100 km beyond the ice shelf edge.