Extension of a Thermal Unit Model to Represent Nonlinearities in Temperature Response of Miniature Rose Development

Abstract

`Candy Sunblaze' and `Red Sunblaze' miniature roses (Rosa L. sp.), were grown at several temperatures. The phenological events of budbreak (BB), visible flower bud (VB), and open flower (OF) were recorded daily. Based on these events, phenophases from BB to VB (BB:VB), from VB to OF (VB:OF), and from BB to OF (VB:OF) were defined. Daily rates of development to complete a phenophase increased with temperature between 13.6 and 27 °C. For `Candy Sunblaze', the rate of increase changed to a smaller slope beyond 25 °C. A piecewise linear regression change point model was fitted to each dataset. The base temperature (Tb) and the temperature at which the nonlinearity (Ti) occurred could then be determined. Tb for the phenophase BB:OF was 9.5 °C for `Candy Sunblaze' and 8.1 °C for `Red Sunblaze'. Ti for `Candy Sunblaze' was 24.9 °C for BB:VB and 25.6 °C for the phenophase BB:OF. The resulting point of change in rate of development prompted a modification of the traditional thermal unit formula. To complete the phenophase BB:OF using the modified formula, 479 degree days (°Cd) were predicted necessary for `Candy Sunblaze' and 589 °Cd for `Red Sunblaze'. Predicted time of events was compared with observed values. Subdividing BB:OF into BB:VB and VB:OF and using their respective Tb and thermal units summations (TU) reduced the average prediction error from 1.9 to 1.8 days for `Candy Sunblaze' and from 2.4 to 1.5 days for `Red Sunblaze'. In addition to single plant observations, phenological observations and thermal units were determined for pots with four plants to simulate commercial greenhouse crop production. Subdividing BB:OF into BB:VB and VB:OF and using their respective Tb and TU accumulations, reduced OF prediction errors on a crop basis for `Red Sunblaze', but was ineffective for `Candy Sunblaze'.