Extending and improving current frameworks for risk management and decision-making: A new approach for incorporating dynamic aspects of risk and uncertainty

Abstract

In recent decades, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of risk-informed decision-making, and the use of risk assessments to support decisions is a core principle in current frameworks and standards for risk management and decision-making. While considerable efforts have been directed towards clarifying the role of risk assessment as input to decision-making, less attention has been paid to the follow-up of the risk assessment once a decision has been made. However, new knowledge, as well as changes in systems, phenomena or values, could alter the underlying premises of the initial risk assessment. Many of the current frameworks for risk management and decision-making lack suitable approaches for reflecting these issues, leaving important aspects of risk unaddressed. In this paper, we present an adjusted approach to risk management and decision-making in which the need for new risk assessments is evaluated, focusing on three main criteria: i) the introduction of new decision alternatives, ii) changes in risk, and iii) changes in context/values. Acknowledging the challenge of determining the appropriate timing for the evaluation, we emphasize that striking a balance between remaining responsive to challenging circumstances and avoiding the use of unnecessary resources on excessive evaluations, is a key task. By providing the basis for a more dynamic approach to risk assessment and risk management, the paper aims to strengthen the foundation for risk-informed decision-making.