Extended warranty decision model of failure dependence wind turbine system based on cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract

Abstract The wind turbine system is the core equipment of wind power generation. Scientific formulation of an extended warranty (EW) scheme to optimize the cost-effectiveness ratio per unit time for a wind turbine system is one of the key concerns both for users and manufacturers. Based on the failure dependence analysis of the multi-component system, the EW cost model and availability model of the multi-component system are established. Based on the EW cost model and availability model, the cost-effectiveness ratio model per unit time is constructed. Through the case study, the optimal EW scheme of the wind turbine system is obtained via genetic algorithm, so as to minimize the cost-effectiveness ratio per unit time. The results of fitting prediction analysis and flexible decision analysis show that the model can excellently predict the minimum warranty cost and maximum availability of failure dependence wind turbine systems and can supply different EW schemes for users and manufacturers to choose from under a specific cost–effectiveness ratio. Through sensitivity analysis, reasonable suggestions for optimizing the EW scheme of the wind turbine system are proposed.