EXPRESS: The Last Hurrah Effect: End-of-Period Temporal Landmarks Increase Optimism and Financial Risk-Taking

Abstract

Understanding what drives risk-taking is fundamental for the study of choice under uncertainty. One widely discussed question is when and why people engage in risk-taking. Prior work finds evidence for an ending effect, where risk-taking increases on the last gamble in a series when outcomes are immediately realized. We test whether socially ubiquitous endof-period temporal landmarks (e.g., last day of the work week, month, year) alter financial risk-taking even when outcomes are not immediate. Using data from a large peer-to-peer investment platform in the United States, we show that investors make riskier financial investment decisions on Fridays relative to those made earlier in the week. Consistent with a broader end-of-period effect, risk-taking also increases on the last day of the month, last day of the year, and on weekdays prior to a long weekend. Follow-up lab experiments identify a novel mechanism driving ending effects: As people near the end of a temporal period, they feel more optimistic that their financial risks will pay off, driving greater financial risk-taking. The shift in risk-taking is not without consequence: In our specific peer-to-peer context, we show that end-of-period investments perform worse over time, losing money relative to investments made on other days.