Exposure to Violence and Conflict: Exploring Predictors of Unauthorized Migration to the USA

Abstract

Recent shifts in the demographic composition of unauthorized immigration in the USA, along with an increase in asylum applications and concerns over human rights violations, have prompted new efforts to evaluate the effects of violence and conflict on current migration patterns. Prominent research in migration studies tends to focus on forced migratory movements or the migration of unaccompanied children, exposing a critical gap on the impact of exposure to violence among asylum seekers and migrants. Guided by a framework of threat-based decision-making, this article presents findings from a secondary data analysis using aggregate macro-level indicators by country (n = 157) for homicide rate, level of violent conflict, gross national income, and income inequality to predict apprehension (i.e., arrest) rates recorded by the US Department of Homeland Security, as a proxy for unauthorized migration. Findings indicate that the homicide rate and level of conflict in the country of origin are significant predictors of unauthorized migration, when accounting for distance and economic factors. Implications for immigration policy and practices related to immigration detention are discussed, as well as the need for macro-level interventions. Future research on individual or survey data may provide further insight into the impact of violence on a micro level.