Exposure of Global Rail and Road Infrastructures in Future Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Abstract

AbstractTransport infrastructures built on historical experience are expected to face multiple threats under climate change, especially the continuous interruptive losses and additional maintenance costs caused by more intense or frequent record‐breaking extreme climate events. In this study, we investigated the change in the exposure of global rail and road infrastructures to eight record‐breaking meteorological hazards using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate data, including extreme temperature and extreme precipitation. Our findings suggest that higher extreme heat and increasing thaw‐freezing index ratio pose great threats to global rail and road infrastructures. The expected annual exposures of these two hazards are 4 and 2 times the average exposure level of eight hazards, respectively. Moreover, the exposure rapidly increases due to sharply increasing drought and heavy rain compound events as emissions growth and development accelerate, rising from 7% to 18% in eight hazard exposures. Sustainable and lower radiative forcing pathways would contribute to the exposure mitigation, with the peak exposure of eight hazards under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP1‐2.6 scenarios averaging 29% and 52% lower, respectively, than that under the SSP3‐7.0, which is an extreme scenario we may be on track for under current global efforts. However, the fact that most areas will still be affected by multiple hazards is probably unavoidable. Thus, in parallel with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we recommend that the transport sector incorporate locally appropriate climate change adaptation strategies to avoid losses induced by record‐breaking extreme climate events.