EXPORT–GROWTH NEXUS IN THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA: A NONLINEAR ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

The study examines the asymmetric influence of exports on economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using an augmented neoclassical production function incorporating export earnings and oil rent. It uses time-series yearly data from 1985 to 2019 published by the World Bank, employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach and Toda–Yamamoto (T–Y) Granger causality test. The outcomes reveal a long-run cointegration among economic growth, exports, oil rents and other variables. Both the exports and oil rents have unveiled asymmetric impacts on economic growth. The overall impact of exports on economic growth remains robust; its positive shock maintains neutrality, while negative shock yields affirmative influence on economic growth in the long run. Similarly, the positive components of oil rents remain neutral, while the negative shocks negatively affect economic growth, with an overall adverse impact. The T–Y causality unleashes that economic growth causes exports negative shocks, and negative shocks cause positive shocks of exports and a feedback relationship between economic growth and positive shock of exports, and thus, validates the NARDL outcomes and verifies their robustness. The outcomes imply that the Kingdom should expand its exports and enhance its nonoil output through product and market diversification measures.