Abstract
Multilateral export control regimes such as the London Club and Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) aim to prevent the flow of complex dual-use technologies to certain ‘target’ countries. The underlying belief has been that these regimes would be able to delay or cripple strategic weapon programmes in ‘target’ countries. However, little attention has been paid to understand the factors that influence the effectiveness of these regimes. In recent years, the limitations of export controls have become increasingly clear. This paper introduces a conceptual framework and analyses the case of India'S space and missile programmes to trace the factors that determine the effectiveness of export control regimes and to understand why these regimes, particularly the MTCR are increasingly ineffective on certain ‘target’ countries.
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