Abstract
This article investigates the robustness of the relationship between export and production growth for three major wheat exporters: Australia, Canada and the United States from 1966 to 2000. Combining production, international trade and development theories, a four variable (production, exports, producer price and imports) vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model is developed for each country. The causality results show that the hypothesis of export-led development is supported by these three major players in the international wheat trade, though a bi-directional causality is found for Canada and the USA. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions are employed to further investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks.
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