Exponential smoothing of dynamic series liquefaction number of corn starch mixture

Abstract

The most important statistical indicators of the time series are the absolute chain and basic growth, chain and basic growth rates, growth rates, etc., which describe the current state of the process without making a forecast. The classical approach to forecasting series is based on the choice of a suitable theoretical model of the trend with unknown parameters, followed by its modeling. The applicability of the exponential smoothing method to the investigated dynamic series lies in the possibility of predicting a non-stationary time series, in which the weight of the series member decreases exponentially and practically does not have any effect on the value of the exponential average, which replaces the observed value of the series. The aim of the work was to carry out exponential smoothing of the dynamic series of the liquefaction number of the corn starch mixture. In this case, the study presents a sequence of observations of the index of liquefaction, ordered depending on the increase in the dosage of amylopectin corn starch in the corn starch mixture. The liquefaction number for corn starch mixture consisting of fine corn flour (GOST 14176) and corn amylopectin starch (GOST 32159) in the ratio: 100:0, 90:10, 80:20, 70:30, 60:40, 50:50, 40:60, 30:70, 20:80, 10:90, 0:100 were received by calculation. Exponential smoothing of the dynamic series of the liquefaction number of corn starch mixture makes it possible to obtain a reliable forecast of the dynamics of the quality indicator at the liquefaction process in the specified interval. The standard errors of the predicted values of the liquefaction number of corn starch mixture at a dosage of amylopectin corn starch in a mixture from 0% to 35.0 % inclusive are within the convergence requirements of GOST 30498 (ISO 3093) for measurement results. A stable growth in the dynamics of the number of liquefaction of corn starch mixture is provided when replacing corn flour with amylopectin corn starch in an amount of not more than 35.0 %.