Abstract
The aim of this study was to propose a procedure for a prediction of the number of fragments generated by fire induced explosions of cylindrical pressure vessels. The prediction is carried out in terms of probabilities of individual fragment numbers. The prevailing numbers of two to four fragments are considered. The fragment number probabilities are estimated by applying data on vessel fragmentations acquired in investigations of past explosion accidents. The pressure vessel explosions known as BLEVEs are considered. The Bayesian analysis is used for the estimation of the fragment number probabilities. This analysis is carried out on the basis of Poisson-gamma model. An approach to developing a gamma prior distribution for the average number of fragments per explosion accident is proposed. The assessment of the fragment number probabilities is carried out by propagating uncertainty related to the average number of fragments to uncertainty in the fragment number probabilities. The stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulation is used for this propagation. Findings of this study are viewed as a possibility to improve the assessment of risk posed by pressure vessel explosions.
Highlights
Cylindrical steel pressure vessels are widely used in various branches of industry
The estimation was carried out as a propagation of epistemic uncertainty through the probability mass function of the Poisson distribution. The use of this distribution was substantiated by the fact that it fairly well approximates frequencies of individual fragment numbers encountered in the past explosion accidents
This study proposed a procedure for predicting the number of primary fragments that can be generated by an explosion of a pressure vessel
Summary
Cylindrical steel pressure vessels are widely used in various branches of industry. Most of them are parts of stationary equipment operated in industrial facilities. A fairly large population of such vessels is used for a transportation of hazardous materials by road and rail. A major portion of such materials are commercial energetic hydrocarbons. A transportation of hazardous materials poses the risk of major accidents. Pressurised hydrocarbons shipped by road or rail are especially prone to such accidents [1]
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