Exploring Vehicle Preference Dynamics: Analyzing the Influence of Oil Price Volatility on Consumer Car Purchase Decisions - A Comparative Survey Experiment

Abstract

China's automobile market is continuously expanding, leading to ongoing growth in oil demand. Fluctuations in oil prices will inevitably impact the travel patterns and car purchasing behavior of automotive consumers. This paper analyzes the influence of gasoline price fluctuations on the travel patterns and car purchasing behaviors of auto consumers with varying incomes, employing a dynamic perspective. We conducted a questionnaire survey of auto consumers in four first-tier cities in China and performed a comparative analysis of questionnaire data from 2015 and 2022. The empirical findings are as follows: (1) Under conditions of elevated oil prices, fuel car consumers exhibit an increased susceptibility to oil price fluctuations, which may cause fuel car consumers to curtail their travel activities. (2) The 10 yuan/liter is the threshold for middle - and upper-income consumers to change their car buying or travel habits, which has not been affected by oil price fluctuations. (3) For the cohort considering electric vehicles, gasoline prices stand as the primary determinant influencing their car buying choices. The primary conclusions serve as significant references for the government to craft corresponding carbon emission reduction policies amidst fluctuating oil prices.