Abstract
Examining the drivers of landscape ecological risk can provide scientific information for planning and landscape optimization. The landscapes of the Amu Darya Delta (ADD) have recently undergone great changes, leading to increases in landscape ecological risks. However, the relationships between landscape ecological risk and its driving factors are poorly understood. In this study, the ADD was selected to construct landscape ecological risk index (ERI) values for 2000 and 2015. Based on a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the relationship between each of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), digital elevation model (DEM), crop yield, population density (POP), and road density and the spatiotemporal variation in ERI were explored. The results showed that the ERI decreased from the periphery of the ADD to the centre and that high-risk areas were distributed in the ADD’s downstream region, with the total area of high-risk areas increasing by 86.55% from 2000 to 2015. The ERI was spatially correlated with Moran’s I in 2000 and 2015, with correlation of 0.67 and 0.72, respectively. The GWR model indicated that in most ADD areas, the NDVI had a negative impact on the ERI, whereas LST and DEM had positive impacts on the ERI. Crop yield, road density and POP were positively correlated with the ERI in the central region of the ADD, at road nodes and in densely populated urban areas, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the ecological constraints of the aforementioned factors should be considered in the process of delta development and protection.
Highlights
A stable ecosystem is the basis for the harmonious development of nature and society
The landscape disturbance index (LDI) correctly reflects the fact that external disturbances [12], including biogeographic and socioeconomic factors, positively affect ecosystems represented by different landscapes, which include a specific combination of the fragmentation index (Fi ), splitting index (Si ) and dominant index (Di )
The results showed that the distribution of the Ecological Risk Index (ERI) exhibited a gradually decreasing trend from the periphery to the middle of the study area in both 2000 and 2015
Summary
A stable ecosystem is the basis for the harmonious development of nature and society. With the intensification of human activities and the changing environment, natural ecosystems have been disturbed by urban expansion, population growth and natural disasters (e.g., floods [1] and debris flow [2]), which have led to many ecological risks [3,4]. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 79; doi:10.3390/ijerph17010079 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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