Abstract
Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger: (1) increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir; and (2) drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.
Highlights
Urban water management can specify supply-side infrastructure and demand-side policies to balance water resources for municipal and environmental needs
A simulation-optimization methodology is developed by coupling a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) modeling framework with non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) optimization methodology, and the model is demonstrated to identify optimal supply-side and demand-side management strategies for an urban water resources system
The major contribution of this research is modeling feedback loops among consumers, policy makers, and natural water resources while evaluating optimal management policies based on the tradeoffs between supply-side and demand-side options
Summary
Urban water management can specify supply-side infrastructure and demand-side policies to balance water resources for municipal and environmental needs. Supply-side management options may result in significant environmental degradation by diverting water from ecosystem requirements, and large infrastructure projects may bear enormous costs. Incentives to use less water through pricing may have limited application and require institutional frameworks to implement. Water use standards, such as new appliances and water restrictions, may increase awareness of water issues and result in more water savings; they have typically been cost-ineffective in implementation [5]. Demand management may have unintended social effects and create an imbalance in environmental justice, as consumers in diverse socioeconomic groups may experience water shortages and price increases differently [6]. Water use reductions may be highly unpredictable; low response rates may not conserve adequate water supplies, while high response rates may reduce water utility revenue [8]
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